Dan Held, head of business growth at Kraken, recently spoke about important assumptions related to the “Bitcoin super cycle”.
According to his estimates, the price of the crypto can reach US $ 300 thousand in this upward cycle – and eventually US $ 1 million. However, after reaching that optimistic mark, Held predicts that a drastic fall may occur soon afterwards.
Hard fall can come around
Held expressed his views in an episode of the podcast “What Happened with Bitcoin”. During the conversation, the veteran defended his opinion about Bitcoin reaching $ 160,000.
The statement is made based on an observation of past occurrences in the cryptocurrency market:
“Even if we assume that the pattern continues to occur, we can expect that BTC will increase 8 times over the previous ATH. In other words, US $ 20 thousand multiplied by 8, the result is something around US $ 160 thousand. ”
However, this would not be the end of the bullish movement. Held complete:
“But this cycle is different from previous cycles, it is a super cycle, so BTC can reach US $ 300 thousand before it falls […] Certainly, [o preço] not only will it increase from $ 20,000 to $ 100,000. In fact, it may increase from $ 20,000 to $ 1 million, and the subsequent cycle will be shorter. This could be one of the last big bullish cycles, ”he said.
In other words, for Held, this is one of the last major cycles of expressive appreciation. Kraken’s head of growth adds that previous bullish cycles indicate that Bitcoin declines up to 80% from its previous peak.
So, at the end of the current boom, the veteran believes that “Bitcoin may eventually be down for a long time”.
Differentiated cycle
Anyway, it is possible that there are deviations from the standard. For Held, massive institutional adoption means that Bitcoin has an “abnormal” cycle.
In addition to the injection of institutional capital, he also lists as lagging factors the “increasingly serious” economic problems, in addition to greater optimism in the cryptocurrency market.
All of this, for the veteran, can affect the Bitcoin consolidation phase. The results are a longer lasting rise, but a slower recovery later.
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